By: Mark Glennon*
Total revenue for Illinois continued to decline in November. That’s based on comparison of both this November to last November and this fiscal year through November to last year.
That bad news is in the monthly briefing from COGFA, Illinois’ Commission on Governmental Forecasting and Accountability. “Last month’s briefing mentioned concern with FY 2017 revenue performance—that concern continues to grow,” says COGFA.
For this November, the bright spot was an increase in personal income tax revenue, which exceeded last November’s by $75 million. However, that improvement was offset by declines in revenue from the corporate income tax and sales tax, as well as smaller transfers from the federal government. For the fiscal year to date, all major sources of state revenue are down — corporate and personal income tax, sales tax and federal transfers. In total, revenue for the fiscal year to date (June – November) is off $607 million compared to last year.
As we’ve noted before, this shrinkage in state revenue is no longer attributable to expiration of the temporary income tax increase.
State revenue is not recovering. It’s shrinking.
*Mark Glennon is founder of WirePoints. Opinions expressed are his own.